The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the world-order not only economically but also politically. The virus has shown how Western societies are vulnerable in a variety of ways. America, which has been the leading country of the world, will likely lose its power and East will rise after the pandemic (Allen et al., 2020). Furthermore, the protectionism will be accelerated, and hence the countries will be less open to others. On top of that, the pandemic has taught the world that multilateral cooperation on the global crisis should become the primary interest of all.
If protectionism influences on global trade trends, some policymakers are likely to be fearful of opening borders, and eventually, less globalisation will follow. At this stage, the subjects of world-leaders are to prevent additional chaos as well as remaining the international unity which has been built for many decades. The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced large purchases of government and corporate bonds in order to support the euro with “no limits’ extents. Europeans have ‘lowest’ free movement of people and capital since World War 2. Knowing COVID-19 is not the only problem within the continent puts a huge burden upon European leaders to find out a solution. Despite the uncertainty, the post-COVID-19 world may not take us back to the past days, and rather it may leave the damage to international trade which is likely to be lasting.
Felbermayr (2018) admitted that the current EU-US disagreements stem from not only Trump but also a lack of mutual understanding and growing mistrust. How the relations will change has many scenarios provided by many observers. In America, Donald Trump faces difficulties to extend the duration of his presidency due to the ‘poor’ organisations in dealing with the virus. Those who blame ‘only’ the Trump Presidency may expect the end of disputes in the next administration. On the other hand, NATO and WTO, in which the arguments are on-going, require long and deep revisions to reform the ‘old’ structures. The key points of future deals will be dependent on whether the EU-US alliance could obtain the level of cooperation they had in the past.
In conclusion, the COVID-19 pandemic may be a good chance for the EU to prepare for future talks with the US. The disastrous situations happening in America are decreasing power of the Trump administration, and therefore Trump has recognised tremendous obstacles to win in the next election. In order to remain his role at the White House, Trump will not be reluctant to do more ‘Trump-ish’ actions such as ‘suggestion to postpone the election’. In this sense, the EU may have to invest its entire efforts into solving the current problems (primarily COVID-19) and preparing the post-pandemic world and new relations with the United States.
References:
Allen, J., Burns, N., Garrett, L., Haass, R. N., Ikenberry, G. J., Mahbubani, K., … & Schake, K. (2020). How the World Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic. Foreign Policy, 20, 2020.
Felbermayr, G. (2018). Dealing with Donald Trump. Intereconomics, 53(5), 257–260. doi: 10.1007/s10272–018–0762–3